Episode Transcript
[00:00:01] Speaker A: The best insight, instant feedback, accountability, the all new Talk Radio Freedom 106.5 and.
[00:00:09] Speaker B: I'm chatting with senior reporter CNC reporter Peter Christopher on the he's a business reporter for CNC3 as well. Good morning to you, Peter. What's up?
[00:00:18] Speaker A: Good morning. Good morning. Yes. And the, the tariffs actually was to take effect from tomorrow if nothing changes from the United States.
[00:00:28] Speaker B: So let's. All right, so now that you are here with me, let's talk a little bit about there's a story this morning by Doris Polo, one of our senior reporters dealing with Armcham TNT as it raises concerns over the U.S. well, no, that's the wrong story I'm looking at. Yes, it's by Gail, sorry, the story with Gail Alexander, the political reporter. They're talking about government should take swift action to protect Trinidad and Tobago trade amid US Tariff what does that mean for Trinidad and Tobagonians, this trade amid the U.S. tariffs?
[00:01:00] Speaker A: All right. The tariff situation would mean that it would impact imports and exports. So basically anything that that is sent from Trinidad and Tobago to the United States would be subject to a new tariff system that will be introduced by the US Government. And also conversely, anything that is coming from the United States from different countries that have tariffs imposed on them would see an adjustment in the cost.
Most likely the cost would go up as a result. So it's a double edged sword. So in a way, stuff that goes to the United States from Trinidad and Tobago would cost more for people who are buying into the United States. So potentially if people want to pay the price, Trinidad could see more money for their products that's being exported to the United States. But the real issue is anything that's being imported through the United States, not, not just from the United States. If you're ordering something from Europe and it passes through the United States, whatever country origin, the tariff that is imposed on them coming into the United States will then be passed on to whoever is bringing it into Trinidad. And that's where the, the real challenges come from. So anything that is being shipped through the United States likely will see a price increase. And that is a major concern.
[00:02:24] Speaker B: How healthy is that for us to sustain our economics in this country when business sectors are now forced to pay higher prices which will affect the cost of living? The COLA in Trinidad and Tobago and the regular citizens.
[00:02:38] Speaker A: Well, it's just one of the latest geopolitical issues that has seen the increase in prices. We've seen an increase in prices consistently since the COVID 19 pandemic. And this would be potentially another avenue for prices to increase. Of course, there are ways around it. There's the possibility that businesses have already foreseen this and have decided to look at different shipping routes so that they would not have to absorb that in that price increase.
But the reality is, with the uncertainty, we also don't know if those, if those tariffs will impact the prices on shelves just yet. So we have to wait and see until the tariffs are actually imposed, if they are imposed. Because Trump has been playing hardball. He has been trying to get people to come back to the negotiating table. He has put a pause on it before. But the lingering concern is the import export market would be adversely affected. Certain things that we are bringing into the country because we bring in a lot of things, a lot of food, a lot of things that we might, including everything, a lot of things are imported into Trinidad and Tobago. And that could affect the average citizen who are going into stores, planning to buy something, expecting it to be 250. And now they have to add an additional 15 or 20% because of the shipping, shipping implications caused by these tariffs.
[00:04:03] Speaker B: Would this not put us in a position where we no longer want to accept stuff from the United States, United States or anything passing through and we seek other alternatives China?
So a lot of persons you mentioned clothing would go to Panama.
Could it see a situation where on the geopolitical landscape, where our business sector no longer wants to do business with.
[00:04:27] Speaker A: The U.S. well, yes and no, because the U.S. is one of our largest trading partners. Of course, it is the big fish in the Western Hemisphere.
I don't think it is necessarily a feasible option to ignore the US Altogether. It is something that they would have to consider. They would have to consider different trading routes and everything like that.
Notably, there are businesses around the world that have been looking at this and have been looking at different areas where they could pass their items through. And one of them is actually in Trinidad and Tobago, a Chinese company, Summit Luggage.
They have a plant here. They make their luggage here. And they are seeing their plant in Trinidad and Tobago as an option to avoid the tariffs that are being placed on China because it's coming from Trinidad and Tobago. Remember, the tariff is imposed based on country, and Trinidad has one of the lower tariffs. So that works in our favor a little bit.
But overall, because we import so many things from so many different countries and a lot of the main transshipment ports are in the United States, we have to look to see if maybe we might have to pivot to Mexico or Panama, as you see to see if we can keep the cost up.
[00:05:48] Speaker B: You know, with that being said, the former government minister, Bharat, he's urging swift action on government to protect.
What action can our government take against or amid these US Tariffs that is set to take place within a few hours?
[00:06:08] Speaker A: That's a difficult question.
I think generally the call was made that CARICOM would have to come together and, you know, make a bid to the United States. I think they did that previously because there was an attempt earlier on by the Trump administration to impose a certain percentage or increase on any. Any vessel that originates from China would see an increase in the amount of taxes that they face at US Ports, and that would have adversely affected the entire region. So caricom as a body, caricom, private sector organization, made a challenge to the United States to say, hey, this would adversely affect not just, not just China, but people who are your trade partners in your region.
And the United States was able to accept that and gave a waiver to the CARICOM region. So a similar approach could be taken with regards to tariffs, but it would require unified effort. So not just the government of Trinidad. And I'm not certain if. Well, yes, why we do have a good relationship with the United States.
Our voice alone can't be the sole voice on this. It would require a unified effort within the region for the United States to say, hey, enough people are affected adversely, and it could adversely affect them because they also do import different things from the Caribbean, and that includes energy. I think, actually it's notable that there is an exemption on certain energy products in the United States. The United States is already trying to protect itself to make sure that they don't incur certain costs. Because already there are reports out to the United States that certain industries that are trying to import things from countries that are impacted by the tariffs are bracing for layoffs and, you know, scale down operations as a result.
[00:07:57] Speaker B: Would that be the consensus of us here in Trinidad and Tobago as businesses now have to incur more costs if product stays on the shelves and profit margins drop, could we see on the private sector that persons would be on the unemployment line? Because if I can't get my products to leave the shelves and my profit margin continues and I end up close to running in the red, I want to lay off some people.
[00:08:24] Speaker A: Oh, yeah. That is the concern from the chambers. It was an immediate response from most of the chambers that something has to be done. Something has to be done to address the situations, because it does put business, private sector businesses in Particular in a very precarious position because it's not exactly easy to pivot. If you are accustomed to ordering and passing things through Miami, having to find a way to say, okay, I need to do this through Panama, you don't know if that's also an additional cost to change the shipping route as well. So it's a really trying situation for the business sector. It's a lot of moving parts and a lot of things that are a little bit beyond their control. So it's a really scary time.
[00:09:07] Speaker B: And the thing about it is, let's look at time frame. If you're coming through the US or from the US Directly, how would the time frame be affected if I now have to go further afield and change shipping routes? If, you know, maybe the timelines in getting products to Trinidad and Tobago maybe shifted a bit?
[00:09:25] Speaker A: Yeah, it could be. It could be. It depends. Of course, the whole shipping process is already affected by issues on our customs currently and the Escuda system having some issues. But yeah, you are right.
We don't know because you're already accustomed to maybe going to Miami might take two days, maybe going to Panama might take four days, maybe going to Mexico might take six days. You don't know. And that also could affect how you are. You are stocking your shelves or pushing to do promotions for your business.
So as I said, there are a lot of different moving parts that adversely affect business owners in Trinidad and Tobago. There are a lot of things that they have to consider.
Some of them might have already tried to pivot or looked at different things, or in some cases they might have decided that because this was a top, this was an option that they used in the pandemic in terms of trying to get stock, they would get the stock or invest in the stock that they know is the most popular or the one that they know is going to come off the shelves and kind of neglect some of the lower sellers. And that might impact a different segment of the country who are looking forward to these things or still need these things to function. So it's a really delicate balancing act that would have to happen if those tariffs come into effect tomorrow.
[00:10:50] Speaker B: Just recently in Jamaica, Montego Bay, there was a huge meeting with CARICOM heads and leaders that assembled at the conference center out there in Montego Bay, Jamaica.
The discussions dealt with security, sustainability, regional security and all these things, economic climate change and so forth. Would it have been prudent of them to look at this oncoming tariff and unify their position to meet with the US Authorities on this and are we too late this is happening? Are we too late to visit and have these discussions now?
[00:11:33] Speaker A: The way of the Trump administration has operated? I'm not sure it's too late. I was just watching a report where the Swiss president, who wasn't invited to the United States, hopped on a plane to try and see if he could have last minute discussions. And I think a similar approach could be taken by members of Caricom. I can't see that that was not discussed in the Caricom meeting. It perhaps may have been lower on the agenda because it was not an immediate issue, but it definitely would have been part of the discussions because it has been something that has been impacting the region for some time with the Trump administration with regard to the tariff situations.
There were also some discussions about the food security issue, which also ties into that because some of the food is imported from the United States. So Caricom states would have discussed amongst themselves how could they supplement each other in terms of if this is running short. Can I supply this to you? Can I get this to you? I know Guyana has been, you know, very much on the front foot with regard to trying to be the food basket for the Caribbean.
But of course we don't know how far along they are. But I wouldn't say that it's too late because we don't know what would happen in the next 12 hours.
BBC News already putting out something that stocks are rising after Trump tariffs already and stuff like that, but discussions are still to be had. There's still at least a 12 to 16 hour window where we possibly could see Trump deciding to put another pause on the tariffs? Depending on what conversations are had today.
[00:13:09] Speaker B: When we look at the grand scheme of things, how beneficial would it be for the Trump administration to renege on this or as you say, further stall these tariffs that are imposed.
[00:13:22] Speaker A: Now, what a lot of people need to consider is that Trump first and foremost is a businessman, a business mogul for some time. And what he's actually doing is a bit of hardball negotiations. He understands that the US Is a major world power and a lot of countries need to do trade with the United States. So he's putting these tariffs out there and making these requests that, hey, I am, but in this out because I'm not in agreement with how our trade is going so far.
So he's actually doing this to get people to come to the table so that he can renegotiate what is happening. And that is really the crux of the matter.
So in the case of Switzerland, he found that the United States is in a deficit with Switzerland. He wants to address that. How can that adjustment be made so that it's more favorable for the United States? And I think that's where the conversations have to be had.
Can this improve for the United States? And at the same time, can we benefit at the same time? And that is the delicate situation that our leaders are in in terms of engaging the United States at this time.
[00:14:34] Speaker B: As we continue with our discussion, let's try to interpret something here that is on the pages this morning. We're talking about Vasan Bharat who emphasized that TNT must not underestimate the indirect economic fallout, the tariff. He said that this situation is a wake up call. This country must engage in diploma diplomatically and economically to safeguard its trade interests. The intermisterial inter ministerial team must act quickly and decisively. He says our future prosperity depends on how quickly and intelligently we adapt to these global conditions. Now, is it a situation now according to the former minister, that we have to adapt and just go along with it?
How should we interpret what is being said by this former minister?
[00:15:21] Speaker A: Well, he's talking about the knock on effects and as I mentioned before, it's a twofold effect. There's the possibility that exports from Trinidad will decrease or there's a possibility that we will get more from exports. That is a possibility because the tariffs also impact the United States. What's coming from Trinidad will cost more in the United States as a result of the tariffs. But it also means that businesses over there also have to consider do I want to pay that extra to bring in stuff from Trinidad or am I going to decide to seek something elsewhere where it's a little bit cheaper or better for me? And that's the same process that's going to have to happen in Trinidad and Tobago. However, it's a little more more difficult for us because maybe we don't have as many options because the United States has been such a key figure in our trade picture for such a long time.
So the pivot, if the pivots are there, businesses definitely would have to consider it. But at this time, I know the vast majority of businesses would know that the easy thing to do is to renegotiate or to figure out how to get that business continuing with the United States.
[00:16:35] Speaker B: One of the fears I have is that once those tariffs go into action within the next, within 16 to 20 hours, it will be difficult for us to navigate negotiations.
If we hadn't engaged in it prior because it Takes effect.
Let's, I mean, you have been a business reporter for some time.
How practical is it that this thing takes effect business wise?
We talk about profitability on the US Side of things and on the TT side of things.
For us to now come back to the table and say, nah, boy, it's like the vat. The VAT had a sunset clause. There was a sunset clause, but it was never removed. It was put in place by the previous administration to help, you know, the economy to sustain financial stability in Trinidad and Tobago by 15%. But it had a clause. We see a reduction of 12.5 over the years. But we have never seen a government that says, you know what, let's revisit what Robinson did many years ago and said, where's the clause? This was supposed to end, why hasn't it? So it just means to say that this money coming in, we started seeing this money.
Why are we now talking to take it away?
[00:17:53] Speaker A: Okay. In this case, it's not confirmed that this type of situation will necessarily benefit the United States.
And that's where I believe there's a level of negotiation. Because also bear in mind that when Trump first announced these tariffs several months ago, a lot of bigger countries also say, well, all right, we will put similar tariffs on your products.
And that impacted businesses in the United States.
So the, the Trump administration is doing a little bit of risk analysis at this point in time.
[00:18:37] Speaker B: So they, we have a little window for some leeway.
[00:18:42] Speaker A: Yes. So there's a, there's a possibility that this, this tariff situation may not work as the government of the United States envisions and they will return to the table sooner rather than later or they will revisit the tariffs sooner rather than later.
[00:18:59] Speaker B: Do we see this as a harsh move? My final question was a harsh, dictated move by President Trump, not a well thought out move. I mean, he is a businessman more than a politician. He has more experience in the business sector. And one can argue that to her, whether it was successful or not.
We have visited the US we have seen the Trump towers. I've seen it in person, time and time, and some of his other businesses and assets.
So do you think that he acted prematurely without giving due care to consideration when he imposed these harsh, heavy handed tariffs on countries?
[00:19:40] Speaker A: I mean, there's a long running question about a lot of policies by the United States government, a lot of their industries. And even before the tariffs became a conversation, there were other policies that have adversely impacted certain sectors in the United States.
There are some reports out of the States because of the stringent visa and immigration policies that have reduced their tourism sector intake as well.
Now, off the base of that, there is some evidence that perhaps the long running effects of these policies aren't initially considered by the United States government.
But again, because Trump has been a businessman for some time, I think his strategy has always been to bring people to the table so that he could renegotiate favorable terms for his people. And that's really his strategy.
So Israeli, I don't want to say it's a wait and see thing right now because it's on our doorstep right now, but it's definitely something. I do think that Trump is someone who wants to be at the negotiating table and he wants to take control of the negotiations.
And that is where our hope would lie at this point, engaging him to see if we can get a favorable outcome for everyone.
[00:21:08] Speaker B: How prudent would it be quickly on this one for us to really govern down or lessen down our imports from the US and try for the next four years to sustain ourselves regionally and even locally while we bide our time for a turnaround?
Should Trump, he will have to make office. That's it. There will be no more Trump come next election.
Their constitution dictates two terms and he would have been in a second. Should we buy our time? Would it be prudent and practical for us to do so?
[00:21:41] Speaker A: Well, if you've been listening to, you know, commentators for some time, particularly in the food import sector and such like such, it's something that we've been advocating, has been advocated for for some time, to not rely so much on certain things that we could possibly get locally and pass, but, you know, do a little bit more trade within, you know, Latin America and the Caribbean to reduce the cost and, you know, bolster those sectors in the region as opposed to, you know, going to the United States. But it's also an easier said and done situation. The capacity that the United States or even Mexico has is not the same capacity that the Caribbean islands has in terms of producing these food items or products that we import and we consume. And while it is something to consider to see if we could, you know, make that adjustment, and perhaps it could be the push that we have to make that adjustment to bring certain import bills down.
We also have to, you know, take a look at our lifestyle in Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean and see if that is really something suitable for us, given what we've grown accustomed to.
[00:22:55] Speaker B: I want to thank you very much for chatting with me this morning, Mr. Christopher, of course, we continue to follow your stories. As a senior reporter, business reporter out there at CNC3, we have been talking with him on the 15% tariff imposed on Trinidad and Tobago by the US government. So I say thank you for joining me on the morning Rumble this morning and have yourself a great and productive day.
[00:23:18] Speaker A: The best insight, Instant Feedback Account accountability, the all new Talk Radio Freedom 106.5.
