Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: The best insight, instant feedback, accountability. The all new Talk Radio Freedom 106.5.
[00:00:08] Speaker B: And as we get set to switch the gears to our next interview, we chatting with Emwale Henry. Good morning to you sir.
[00:00:15] Speaker C: Good morning Davion. Good morning to you listeners. So good to be here.
[00:00:18] Speaker B: When I looked at your designate this morning, I, I thought to myself, pollster, that is interesting, you know, so let's talk a little bit about what you do, you know. Please advise my listening audience.
[00:00:30] Speaker C: Oh yeah. So in a nutshell, my area is an expertise in the area of management consultancy. I run a consultancy firm out of Atlanta, Georgia. Work with various enterprises from Walmart to Puma to Bath and Body work. So my main area is looking at behavioral intelligence, informing businesses to make strategic decisions, looking at the marketplace. So that's a core area of just following behavioral trends and looking at how you can make data driven decisions.
[00:01:10] Speaker B: Beautiful, beautiful. And I can see how that ties in really nicely into the political realm as we are discussing the, the, the, the polls. I mean, are you paying attention to what's happening in Trinidad?
[00:01:22] Speaker C: I am and definitely I'm paying attention.
[00:01:25] Speaker B: Because I mean, you know, people might say, but he out there in the US how we know what's going on here home. I mean we home know what's going on in the U.S. so somebody messaged me that already, but don't ask me that. They said, David, he's in Trinidad. I'm like, don't ask me them kind of questions. No man, the fellow is a learned individual and he's paying attention to the political landscape. So as it relates to the behavior of what's taking place with our political luminaries, your thoughts on that? Can they behave better?
[00:01:52] Speaker C: Can they be here? Well, that's an interesting question because I know the council, there is an established.
[00:01:57] Speaker B: Council for, but that council, no, there's no power. There is a council, no legal authority. I don't know what power they have. If they could move here, I don't know. But no legal authority.
[00:02:09] Speaker C: But their mission, their stated mission I believe is a laudable one to the political conversation and of recency, the UNC would have withdrawn from that council and they even went a little further to say don't even comment on our political conversations. Be that as it may, but we all know around election time things get dicey. We call it silly season.
But one thing I can assure you is that with the oncoming of new voters, young voters, that type of political dichotomy would not always pan out to the favor of Those who decide that type of cut and trust politics because people are interested in the issues.
There is a present government. There's going to be a stark analysis on governmental performance.
And also there would be a stark contrast on governmental leadership. So interesting times are ahead.
[00:03:15] Speaker B: Very, very interesting times. We are seeing mass withdrawal coming out from one political entity. We are seeing appointments and anointments coming from another. We are seeing the constitution of the fabric of the political landscape being called into question. We are seeing the shifting of the sands where one attorney general is being sworn in without a practicing license. Much is happening on the political landscape here in Trinidad and Tobago. So for you as an observer, you as a pollster looking in, how do you think these major political parties will fear the polls?
[00:03:50] Speaker C: Well, the first thing you know, today is an interesting day. Why I say it's an interesting day. The political dust hasn't been settled, though the election bell has been rung. Some of the preliminary data that I've seen, people are interested to see who are the candidates that will be on the battlefield and what is the vision that is being presented.
You did allude to something that's interesting. Yes. Historically, this is probably the first time historically, we've seen 10 plus, you know, political figures in a party resigning in an election year.
I do share sentiments that it does point to some form of party indiscipline. But some people either say it's a purge, some people say, you know, it's a leadership crisis, or some are saying it's a search, a preparation for a new strategic direction for the United National Congress. So that is yet to be seen. For me, I always say, what is the political maps? Because coalition politics is politics of addition. It cannot be a politics of subtraction. If you look at what brought Donald Trump, just for an example, into the White House, it was the politics of addition. He was able to pull in a coalition to bring him into the White House, and it was a diverse coalition. So from the people's partnership time to even now, we have to see what is that political map, I think that's going to be announced today of what that coalition is. Is that math in the positive is when we look at the political balance sheet, or does the present opposition leader come up in the negative? So that's yet to be seen what type of talent? And to your question about the current administration, they have three key hurdles to cross. They have the burden of incumbency. They have been in government. They also have the burden of not just dictating what have been their performance, but now they are pivoting to new leadership. We hear the communication strategy of a new chapter. So what the society will end up doing is comparing what is the quality of leadership that is being presented by the incumbent party versus what other political entities are presenting and that would be weighed on its balance.
[00:06:14] Speaker B: With that being said, let's talk a little bit about the handling now. It is not something that is strange to the region, but very, very new to us here in Trinidad and Tobago where one particular prime minister would vacate the office and passing the battle on to another, it seemed, as the opposition leader says, unconstitutional.
A special convention should have been called allowing the party membership of. However, if it's 150,000, 175,000 strong to vote for whom they would have chosen for their leader. In spite of all of this, do you think the fact that the Prime Minister Steuche Young senior counsel would have placed the Attorney general move around some ministers do a slight shifting in the cabinet and present it to the populace. Do you think this is enough for them to gain some sort of favor or trust at the polls come April 20th?
[00:07:16] Speaker C: Well, to your first point, yes. This is historically different and new for Trinidad and Tobago.
Some people say it's actually laudable, you know, because we've traditionally have seen the contestation of politics in Trinidad specifically very tense whereby we are motivated to vote out rather than vote in.
You know, politicians are usually dragged out of office, they die in office. So the list goes on. So it is a different tenure, it's a different tone. And I would say it was not, it wasn't a surprising tone because this was. This move, if you're talking about political strategy, was telegraphed. This was telegraphed from the last political, from the last election cycle. The then former prime minister would have indicated this was his last iteration and he consistently brought that to the fore. So if even if I was a political opponent, I shouldn't be caught quote unquote flat footed of this move. So this was literally, you know, if we want to use cinematography, this was a matrix move. It was in slow motion. So I don't think talks about this being unconstitutional.
The People's National Movement have their own party constitution.
There would have clearly been a division in the process that was taken. But the, the needful ratification happened via the. These. The General Council ratifying such a decision and bringing it to a special convention.
So for me the real question is how do we deal with these changes? And these changes, as you would have alluded, aren't new. We just saw what happened in Canada Yes, a sitting prime minister decided to resign and people might laugh and say he's probably a pamphlet group. He came into office and he called a snap election. That election is happening concurrently with us as well. April 28th. So the political dynamics, I think is an opportunity for the Trinidad and Tobago society to, to mature as to what the political dynamics are and is yet to see how do we respond to these changes.
[00:09:35] Speaker B: My thing about my take on it is when it comes to the opposition fighting on the merit of the unconstitutional way in which she perceives that the transition of power took place, would it not have not been more prudent of her rather than focus on that, focus on the internal ramblings of your political party, the fact that you have aligned yourself with someone who would have tainted you, spoken derogatory and negative about you, no belief yet still it seems to be a parting of error and you bringing this person aligning yourself in what is called a coalition government, a coalition party now, not a partnership anymore, but a coalition party. And coming out, rather than dealing on nationalistic issues that are affecting you, speaking on something that you don't really have a bearing on your party's constitution have nothing to do with the PNM's constitution.
So in my respected opinion, I mean, should that have not been a feather in your cap to say, well, hey, yeah, look at the nonsense them doing here. The UNC would have never done that. We should go forward now. Would that not fall favorably for them?
[00:10:38] Speaker C: Just saying, well, and so let's look at the political science, right? The political science on political communication tells us if you are in opposition and you use negative communication, your party, it will have a net positive response on your party, base, party. So by the opposition leader using that line of attack, all she would have done was inspire her political base and inspire the incumbent party base to defend the decision of the People's national movement when it comes to those who are independent, disengaged voters, new voters. The science also shows it could have a negative effect because voters aren't interested in your verbal attack on the behavior of a politic of your opposing party. But they also are interesting, okay, what is your vision as a party and what is the alternative vision that you present? So that in itself, I think it can be a miscalculation.
Similarly with her telegraphing her willingness to partner with the TPP to form, you know, a new government, what is that impact that is going to have in the Tobago politics? Some people are saying if we are looking at just communication on a whole, we have to take in mind what is currently needed in the society versus as I said before, oppositional politics, voting out a government or the true crisis that we are facing in terms of crime, in terms of the economy, who is best suited to solve that problem?
[00:12:22] Speaker B: All right. Indeed. So I like the direction in which we are going with the conversation. It's 8:31, we take a quick commercial break and we'll be back. Stick and stay with us.
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[00:14:50] Speaker A: You're tuned into the AllNew Freedom Formal 6.5 Formal 6.5 all right, welcome back.
[00:15:11] Speaker B: To Freedom 106.5 FM. We are here chatting with him, Ali Henry as we deal with the predictions of what we can expect coming at the polls. Now as we were talking about the behaviors a little while ago, let's talk a little bit about the narrative being spewed on the political platforms in terms of the attacks that we see happening now. Persons are being described as spiritual figures. Now your thoughts on that?
[00:15:40] Speaker C: Well, there's always been a relationship between Race, religion.
In the political landscape we do see the demographic trends in terms of the base that supports both the UNC and the pnm.
One of the most interesting, I should say pivot that is happening is that some of the cultural undertones and underpinnings that would have once come directly from, from the UNC in terms of race and religion we are seeing a splintering or divergent that is happening in terms of for instance the sdmf, the past satmraj who would have sat in a position of influence within the Hindu community. You are seeing a further fracturing that is happening and a divergent view where he's basically saying some of these groups, they are saying hey, it's not a for sale sign. It's not, you know, a predicted move within some religious sects or sectors. So that's an interesting trend that has not been seen traditionally. There's always been a unified conversation amongst the Hindu community. Now we are seeing a willingness to either have a divergent view or even a willingness to have a challenged view to a party that would have traditionally received unquestionable support. It's yet to be seen.
Some of the polling has shown statistically the reaction newer voters and younger voters voters have towards traditional type sectoral politics. With the upcoming of Michaela Pandey we have hope, we have different parties, NTA etc. They are targeting what they will call those new voters or those floating voters and how will they respond to that type of sectoral, tribal type of politics is yet to be seen. If they are able to build a coalition to get a seat because we've seen what happened in every iteration of the copyright where they would have been able to get a lot of voters but not a seat. So it's yet to be seen what that impact is electorally.
[00:18:06] Speaker B: Wow, that is a very, very interesting comment that you mentioned there. Because when I look at the, at the political landscape here, I am uncertain whether or not the what is being spewed from the platform is engaging enough to get those younger voters under 30, under 25, the 18 year olds, the 19 year olds who are eligible for voting. I am not certain that they are understanding the rhetoric in terms of the gdp, the sustainability of an economy, the financing, the debt to service ratio when it comes to the borrowing, the lending, the spending, the how much billions of dollars. So I am asking this morning, based on your analysis of the situation what are these political parties doing or what can they do to really attract these young voters? Michaela Pandey says and not only you the interview I had before you with Dr. Rambachan did allude to the fact that Mirkayla can appeal to the youth. But what are we appealing to the youth for? What is the promise that they can look forward to other than just, hey, I understand your language. I youthful like you and I in the politics too, so you should vote for me. What can be done, what do you think can be done to attract in a very holistic and serious way these young voters?
[00:19:24] Speaker C: Well, the critical question is what attraction has already taken place because you would have seen, you would have seen, I would say a clear admission or a strategy by the present government a need to engage young people. So the establishment of the Ministry of Youth Development and National Service would have been a clear one admission and also a strategy to engage young persons to be part of the productive society. So there are a realm of programs and courses that have been offered to the population, be it in agriculture, be it in the energy sector, etc. So the question now would be, has that paid off any dividends? What level of engagement or what level of satisfaction have young people have received or benefited from the state's intervention in this unique way and in this very targeted way. But to your, to your wider question, what has been the conversation on the political platform?
The race is now off. There are some players on the field presently.
What would weigh in clearly is number one, there has been a consistent trend in the, in the politics since 1981. You would have had ONR getting a lot of votes yet not getting seats, you know, to understanding the plurality that's in our society. So 1975, when the Hugh Wooden commission would have given some recommendation to both a first past the post system and proportional representation, we would have had the opportunity to see what that plurality of voters would do in with the existence of third parties that you would have mentioned. Michaela Pan I saw people doing an analysis of how her digital presence and her digital presence is strong when she posts pictures, when she does commentary, we see the engagement. The question is would that digital engagement translate to the polls where people are inspired to come out and to vote because they would not have had that type of experience before her iteration in the politics during the pandemic era.
[00:21:49] Speaker B: In addition to that, most persons were saying that she's not educated, sorry, experienced enough to get into government. She's actually going and contest for 41 constituencies. And that is laudable. I must admit that is very laudable because I will tell you why I do not. I could never understand subscribing as A political entity, but you're going up for four seats. And persons told me once that if I win my four seats, I can decide who makes who form the next government. I, you know, but I see it as a joke. If you're going go hard, you going up for four seats, and if you're successful, you win three, and you happen to be having those crucial seats that you know, you can form the next government, you're still going to form a coalition government. You still have to form a partnership. You start to form some agreement. Now, when I look at these partnership governments and these coalition governments that has existed across political landscapes, not just here in Trinidad, I often say to myself, each political entity has a leader, and each leader is aspiring to be that of the prime minister, that of the head of the government, head of the country. When you align yourself to, let's say, the unc, for example, you are now under the dictates of that UNC leader. You all will have an agreement on paper. Well, if you give, if you, if you win this, you could get that. And that breeds for underhandedness in some instances and corruption because the wider populace is not made aware of what negotiations went on the table. Should you align yourself with me and your win and we could get together and win because okay, I didn't vote for the UNC. I vote for the NTA or vote for the PEP, but they are all assigned associated with the UNC. So if, if whoever, let's say the UNC won 10 seats and the other seats were picked up by the other parties, it's still a win for the unc. Which party gonna head the government then? Not the unc. So for me, I never understood that and what it means for the leaders of these parties who now have to confine and conform. And that's what happened to the people's partnership. Some of these leaders fell out of whatever trust or whatever arrangement. It didn't suit them well anymore under Kamala Prasad Bisesa. So the thing about it is, I am now concerned yet again that another coalition is forming. In addition to that, the pep, which is a leader, very animated guy, very, very, very animated individual. And heavily critical at one point in time against the current opposition leader. Now finding yourself in a quagmire where you have formed allegiances, how can the voting populace, or how in your respective opinion, how would the voting populace see this coalition, this merging of two once hated entities now being, you know, in bed together, so to speak?
[00:24:36] Speaker C: You know, you raise a very interesting point about the ethics of that Promised Kennedy for him to come into the politics and to give the endorsement.
Then candidate Donald Trump, now President Trump would have indicated, he said that would have been a breach of government ethics rules that he cannot be trading offices for favors. So that sparked an interesting debate internally and it's something that I think we as Trin Begonians have accepted in coalition politics. Unethical behavior of horse trading that takes place that sometimes more drive trade offs for personal benefits than national development, you know, and that's something we have to be very mindful of. So usually you'll have the inferences what promise was made. So even though you would hear people say of interest, some are saying it might be a conflict of interest rather than a coalition of interest. So who knows. What trades have taken place is yet to be seen. And I wouldn't want to be presumptuous because I think a lot of people are anxiously awaiting what this announcement would look like today and what that build out looks like for the general population.
But to the wider point, when you are considering what is the national strategy or what is the, the national plan, you know, we will hear for some form manifestos being put out, you know, of plans, I am, I am of the personal belief, I am not fully impressed by glossy magazines or digital magazines, prints or misprints of plans for one main reason. Many of these plants are not costed. There is no independent body that looks at these plans to see okay, what is the economic benefit, what, what is the affordability plan, what is the, what's the revenue plan for it. But it's just a list of to do list items because remember a country is a business, where are you getting the revenue? How are you going to do this expenditure? And if you look at developed countries from the US to the UK they have independent budget, public servants, budget departments that cost political parties plans. So whenever people come and make these promises, you will see releases from these independent associations and independent institutions who will talk about the feasibility or the non feasibility of these plants. And that's definitely needed in our Caribbean society if we want to get to that place of development and modernity.
[00:27:52] Speaker B: As a pollster, as a person that paying attention to politics across many spheres, especially around the center here in Trinidad, there was a recent talk about and I concur in this and I am very cognizant of the fact of how busy our MPs get when they are elected into office. Do you think the time has come for these MPs to become an MP which is a glorified counselor so to speak a former, a higher level of counselor, you know, the member of parliament for the area. But you are now given a ministerial post. So you now have your constituency, your burgesses have to look after. But then you have an entire ministry that the country is depending on that you also have to look after as well. And then you, you, you need, you, you neglect your, your responsibilities as an MP or it seems to be washed aside where occasionally I have a three hours in your office.
What are your thoughts in terms of an MP becoming a minister? Especially those that can't seem to, you know, juggle both.
[00:28:56] Speaker C: Yeah, well, first, first thing first, that really leads into the question of what type of constitutional reform we need. Because the reason we have ministers or MPs having ministerial positions is because of political patronage. You can have someone who runs for a seat and they do not get to be a part of executive authority. And because of that conflict that happens, you know, you would have seen in administrations before they will bring other persons through the Senate, but then there is that contestation and where that person didn't run for no election or it is they in the cabinet, etc. Etc. So because of that type of, you know, dichotomy, maybe there needs to be a serious conversation of how do we lift or separate or disaggregate representational politics and executive politics and those who are required to administrate and apply executive authority have a different entry point to those who do representative politics in the legislation, in impacting legislative type of authority. You know, I always laugh about, you know, when we talk about what we need. So for instance, you will always hear this and I know a lot of MPs especially those in the marginal seats, they will say they build bridges, they built a community center, they brought all this infrastructure. But the truth is my friend, constituents will just conclude by saying but I ain't seeing you.
Because our, our politics is very much relational driven and in bigger societies there is a very thin likelihood that you will see your congressperson. But in our grassroots type politics, despite all of the infrastructural changes and development that you do in this society and they will know that you are responsible for it. They will end up saying still I don't see my mp. I never see during the, my seeing him is when it's election time and they, whatever work has been done so there is that need and demand by the electorate to have the ability to be seen and heard. Sometimes they know you can't fix the problem right away. But the mere fact they had an opportunity to talk with you, show you what their problem is, what the issues are in itself allows them that type of accessibility and to know that they are part of the process and the decision making process.
[00:31:42] Speaker B: And that is most crucial and important to feel heard and wanted to feel the fact that I was able to. You are reachable, you know, you have a want. I mean, you're more likely to get that vote very quickly because of your reachableness. And then by you being reachable, listening to the cries of these people, understanding the dichotomy of the situation you're in, what could happen, you're now prone to act.
You're not prone to act because not.
[00:32:08] Speaker C: Only that, your decision is again, data driven because you are there. Because we've had administrations in the past do capital expenditure projects, right? And then you want to figure out, okay, why is this project not being received by the community. And then when you go in and you ask questions, it build on the wrong side.
There wasn't consultation with the community. So you have that type of separation in terms of what's happening on the ground and what representatives think that their constituents may need. The whole purpose of representative politics is to represent what constituents want, is not for you to impose what you think they need. So definitely there would be an opportunity for us to relook how we engage this constitutional idea and this constitutional reform to disaggregate representative politics in the legislature and executive authority for the running of Trinidad.
[00:33:18] Speaker B: Because we have a tendency to put square pegs in wrong holes. Because, because you run from as MP and you get through. I owe you this Alligator Ministry. But final question for you. What are your predictions or thoughts on the that the voter turnout will be in this very, very crucial election campaign that is about to embark. We're about to embark on we Five weeks out, five weeks nomination day I think is coming up.
So what are your thoughts in terms of voter turnout?
[00:33:45] Speaker C: Good question. So, you know, I always tell my friends and ulcers you have to be very careful. You make predictions, right.
So similar to my prediction with a convincing win for Donald Trump where many people didn't even think he would have been a factor, you know, I would have predicted not just a win, but a popular vote as well. So winning in the Senate and in the Congress. So when it comes to Trinidad Tobago politics, when I look at some of the data, you know, success leaves clues. We've seen in the last three cycles a decline in voter turnout and there has not been any significant political occurrence save and accept a change of Leadership within an administration and the rise, and now the splintered rise of oppositional parties.
Because the last partnership cycle you had a consolidation of political parties, trade unions and all political parties. We are seeing in this cycle we're seeing a rise of varying political parties, but they are independently in different factors. So what I do predict that if the base of the People's National Movement are so inspired by this pivot that is taking place and they hold on their base versus the unc, if they are able to bring some form of momentum not just in their base but in their coalition of politics, there is a high likelihood, I predict, that the voter turnout will still be low. And even if there is a 5 to 8% uptick in that voter turnout, I think most of that turnout will happen to the opposing parties, the independent, separate type of coalition parties. And that would not bring them into what we will call their own seat moving into the first past the post system. That's a Herculean type of hurdle that independent separate parties have to cross over. And that ground swelling of response with a very sprint of an election doesn't allow them to have that type of roots to build that type of momentum. So there's a high probability, you can see a return of the present administration save and accept if they are able to sell this new communication pivoting from the economy and crime to strategic leadership. So if this election comes down to an examination of leadership and a comparison of leadership as happened in the last pandemic, because we saw the last cycle of election coming out of the pandemic, it was about leadership. The economy was, was, was rough crime. The then administration would have held the highest levels of crime and murders. But yesterday won the election because they would have won on the issue of leadership that they provided during the pandemic. So who knows? And then finally, I will say this. If there is a global geopolitical event that happens, the society will also factor that in their decision making process. We've seen Australia, Canada, all these economies are brought to their knees because of the winds that Donald Trump has brought to the space. This Wednesday we're going to be seeing Stuart Young, the Prime Minister. He's going now to meet with the Secretary of State in Jamaica. So if there's an international event that brings Trinidad into focus, especially the outcome of that meeting again, that's going to be signaling are we ready? Do we have the right people who are able to sit and meet with these leaders? Because we are a small state and the winds in this western hemisphere, we cannot stand alone and we are not able to independently navigate that. So who's the right person to deal with global crisis? Who's the right person to fix our domestic crisis? And once the race becomes a leadership question, there is a high probability, there is a marginal probability that the current administration would be able to pivot into a victory.
[00:38:28] Speaker B: Wow. Interesting prediction. Emwale. I thank you very much. I want to agree with you a little bit there too, as well, because I feel it, even though I don't want to admit it, but I do feel it. So I thank you very much for your predictions, for your talk with us this morning. Don't be a stranger. I would imagine that as the political election climate thickens, we will probably chat as we get closer. All right. Have yourself a blessed and safe one. Bye bye, sir. All right. And with that being said, it's time to turn our gears over to Tuscar Martinez inside the Human Impact. It has been a very animated and spirited discussion here in the Morning Rumble. We thank each and every one of you. We urge you to have yourself a very, very safe and productive day out there. Stay blessed and we'll talk tomorrow. Take care.
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